The Thinking ‘Kat: A World on Fire
I woke up this morning to the news that the US has bombed nuclear facilities in Iran. This comes several days after Israel launched a surprise attack of their own, firing missiles at Iranian nuclear sites, and also taking out scientists working on their nuclear projects. Israel’s undeclared war (and what else can it be called?) on Iran has also seen multiple strikes against the Revisionary Guard, and Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted that this campaign is not merely about destroying Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons, but also about regime change.
Is the Iranian government something of an authoritarian one? Yes. Information is tightly controlled, freedom of expression is muted, and the treatment of women is dubious. Iran is gripped by a conservative religious order, the sort of rule I can readily imagine some of Trump’s more passionate supporters desiring in the USA.
Is Iran working to develop nuclear weapons? That’s been a bone of contention for many years, and it led to a treaty, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), being signed in 2015, between Iran and several world powers, including a USA then led by Barack Obama. This treaty saw the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) closely monitor Iranian nuclear sites. As of 2018, Iran was complying with the terms of the treaty, according to the IAEA. 2018 is important, because it was in 2018 that Trump withdrew the US from the JCPOA, and shortly after this, Iran stopped cooperating with the IAEA.
The emphasis is important. Trump decided to pull out from the treaty, and Trump ramped up sanctions on Iran. The Iranian authorities then took a hard-line approach in response. Attempts to repair Trump’s damage during the Biden years failed, and with recent negotiations failing, Israel then decided to take unilateral action with bombs and missiles.
What has this wrought? Well, Iran has fired numerous missiles at Israel in retaliation, and the Israeli government has complained of Iranian strikes, whilst continuing to launch attack after attack of its own. Yes, it can be argued that the Iranians are not being especially careful with their targets, but the Israeli government has not been particularly careful during its military operations in Gaza, and if the Iranians are to be believed, there have been numerous civilian casualties in their capital Tehran, as a direct result of Israeli strikes. The trouble with these kinds of conflicts is that they can quickly escalate, and again, whilst I have little sympathy toward the Iranian government, for the Israelis to demand that Iran stop firing missiles, whilst refusing to halt their own attacks, is the height of hypocrisy and irony.
Is there justifiable concern about the Iranian nuclear program? Yes. There is also evidence that the JCPOA was working, at least as far as the regular updates from the IAEA were concerned. Pulling out from that treaty created a mess, and it is largely down to Trump. Now he is ordering bombs to be dropped on Iran, and what might that lead the world into?
