The more I read of the crisis in Ukraine, the more I don’t like it. Whilst I would like to dismiss the idea of this sliding inexorably to full-scale war between Ukraine and Russia as scare-mongering hysteria, the rhetoric coming out of Ukraine, and the fact that Russian troops are in Ukraine, suggests to me this situation has a very real potential to turn into something very bad.
The big issue is that Russia is violating the sovreignty of another country with a view to undermining a government with pro-Europe ambitions (and Russia has already annexed Crimea, whilst the world stood by and watched). Meanwhile, there are question marks over the elections and riots that led to the current Ukrainian government and its policies.
Where does the line get drawn? How much economic and political pressure can Russia absorb before military action becomes a real option?
If Russia commits to a full-scale war, what hope does Ukraine have of fighting them off without help, and if no one steps in to help, what sort of message does this send to both Russia and Ukraine?
Tough questions, with no easy answers.